2021 (subject to change): purchasing power up, economic growth of 3.5%

As a result of the third support package for businesses, unemployment will rise a little less next year than previously estimated, says the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. The CPB now thinks that unemployment will reach 5.9% next year; last month it was expected to reach 6.5%.

But should there be a second wave of coronavirus crashes, with another lockdown, unemployment will rise to 8.5% next year, according to the Macro Economic Explorations of Prince‘s Day.

Growth 3.5%

For this year the CPB expects an economic contraction of 5%, followed by growth of 3.5% next year. This is slightly better than previously expected, partly due to investments being brought forward and the Wopke-Wiebes growth fund.

But if there is a second wave, the contraction will be bigger this year and the economy will deteriorate further next year.

These are the two scenarios of the CPB:

In any case, the CPB thinks that next year public debt will exceed the European limit of 60% of GDP. Due to the corona crisis, countries will temporarily not have to comply with this budget rule.

Aid increases inequality

CPB director Pieter Hasekamp expresses concern that, as a side effect of the corona support measures, the dichotomy in society is increasing. Aid mainly goes to people with a permanent job

Companies use the NOW scheme mainly to continue paying people in permanent employment and say goodbye more quickly to temporary workers or people with on-call contracts.

These vulnerable groups often have fewer buffers and get into trouble faster, according to Hasekamp. It is good that the generous support measures are in place. But the side effect is greater inequality

Purchasing power: +0.8%

The purchasing power of an average household will increase by 0.8% in 2021. However, it is normally questionable whether the purchasing power estimates will actually materialise. And now this is all the more true, especially because of the economic uncertainties surrounding the corona crisis, the CPB warns.

Click here to see the purchasing power estimates for 2021 for various groups:

Of these groups, pensioners are the least well off, with an expected 0.4%. This is partly due to the fact that some pension funds will probably have to reduce pensions next year due to underfunding.

Nibud: 2021 will be a tough year

For those who keep their jobs, little will change financially. But with rising unemployment, an increasing number of people on welfare and businesses shrinking or closing down, 2021 will be a financially difficult year for many. This is what the National Institute for Budget Information (Nibud) warns against.

Nibud has calculated for a hundred different households what will happen to their purchasing power next year. Most of them will go up or stay the same. Of 15, it will go down. Click here to see what happens to the household that most resembles yours.

Nibud’s calculations of purchasing power can also be different if, for example, wages rise less than expected or inflation is higher than predicted.