‘216 million climate refugees in 2050 if nothing changes’

The effects of climate change may have forced 216 million people in six regions of the world to move to another place in their country by 2050. The World Bank announced that in a report on climate change.

According to the research, the first areas in which people flee to other parts of their country on a large scale by 2030 in the regions under investigation. Potential hazards include water shortages, a decrease in crop growth and sea level rise.

The study builds on a 2018 report that looked at the impact of climate change in sub-Saharan (possibly 86 million climate migrants by 2050), South Asia (40 million) and Latin America (17 million). The new report also looked at East Asia and the Pacific (49 million), North Africa (19 million) and Eastern Europe and Central Asia (5 million). Western Europe has not been included in the study.

Three scenarios

The report explores three scenarios. In the worst case scenario, little is assumed to be done on greenhouse gas emissions, among others. This follows the figure of 216 million โ€œclimate migrantsโ€.

In the most favourable scenario, where sustainable development is underway, the number of migrants in their own country could be 80 percent lower. But even in that scenario, 44 million people should be looking for a place elsewhere. The danger is particularly high in less prosperous countries.

Recommendations

The report also makes recommendations on how to combat climate migration. For example, global greenhouse gas emissions should be reduced by investing in โ€œgreen, resilient and inclusive developmentโ€.