Gauge guide: VVD remains by far the largest, PVV back on the rise

The VVD is still by far the largest party in the polls. The PVV is on the rise and is now clearly the second party. The CDA is sinking somewhat after an upturn in the summer.

In the latest Peilingwijzer, an average of the Ipsos, I&O Research and Kantar polls, the VVD stands at 38 to 42 seats, just as many as in the previous Peilingwijzer more than two months ago. Prime Minister Rutte‘s party continues to benefit greatly from voter appreciation for the corona policy. In the first months of the corona crisis, the VVD won some 15 seats. Of those, three were lost in the summer, but that decline has not continued in recent months.

The PVV, which lost to the VVD at the start of the corona crisis, has been doing better again since the summer. Geert Wilders’ party now stands at 16 to 20 seats, four seats more than in May. Tom Louwerse, the maker of the Peilingwijzer, points out that Wilders has been more emphatically present lately, for example with his criticism of the running away of the government parties in the debate on care salaries and with the trial in the ‘less-Moroccan’ case.

At the beginning of July, the CDA took advantage of the list leader election that was coming up at the time, but now it seems to be turning against the CDA. The party now has 12 to 16 seats, one less than in July. The elections and their aftermath showed a picture of internal division and that is not a good thing, says Louwerse.

The CDA is also hardly benefiting from the appreciation of the corona policy. As usual, this is reflected in the largest governing party, in this case the VVD.

Journalists assume that this is also due to Prime Minister Rutte taking the currants out of the porridge and having Minister De Jonge refurbish the tricky dossiers, such as the corona app and the testing capacity. Louwerse thinks that there may be something in this, but does not see it clearly confirmed by the available figures. The voters‘ appreciation of De Jonge is quite high He gets a less high mark than Rutte and Minister Hoekstra, but with a 6.5 he is still in a good third place, according to the Prinsjesdag survey by I&O Research.

However, the question is whether this is a reason for voters to switch to the CDA. Louwerse sees limited potential for CDA in this respect. Research by I&O has shown that the CDA can only hope to win some votes from the VVD and the ChristenUnie, and even there is not much room for manoeuvre. Figures from Ipsos/EenVandaag confirm this picture.

Recovery D66 stagnates

D66 perhaps has a little more growth potential, because this party is also often referred to as a second preference by voters of the Green Left and the Labour Party. In July, the candidacy of Minister Kaag for the list draw led to a gain of three seats in the Peilingwijzer, but this growth is not continuing now. D66 stands unchanged at 11 to 15 seats.

The left-wing opposition parties GroenLinks (13-15) and PvdA (11-15) are the same size, while the SP with 8 to 11 seats continues to do poorly. The SP is almost equal to Forum for Democracy, which has 8 to 12 seats in the polls.

These parties are followed by the ChristenUnie, which continues to do well with 6 to 8 seats and has been on a win-win streak compared to the 2017 elections to the House of Representatives for the entire government period.

Furthermore, the Party for the Animals remains at 4 to 6 seats, the SGP is stable at 2 to 4, 50Plus stands at 1 to 3 and Denk op 0 to 2. The Party for the Future, Henk Krol’s new party, is not yet very popular with voters with 0 to 1 seat.

The CCeit regularly publishes the polling guide. It combines polls from De Peiling (EenVandaag and Ipsos), I&O Research and Kantar. Maurice de Hond does not wish to participate in the Peilingwijzer with Peil.nl. More about the method behind the Peilingwijzer can be found on the website of political scientist Tom Louwerse.