Liberal parties VVD and D66 leave left and confessional far behind

As expected, the VVD is the largest party, D66 wins more than predicted, the left again appears to be no significant factor in a new cabinet to be formed and more parties are coming into the Chamber again. In short, these are the main conclusions that you can link to the exit polls of the parliamentary elections.

It is unique that Mark Rutte led his party to election victory for the fourth time in a row. โ€œThat is political historyโ€, says political reporter Xander van der Wulp. Rutte is on his way to becoming the longest serving prime minister ever. โ€œThat‘ll take another 500 days.โ€

However, few would have foreseen that D66 would end up relatively close behind the VVD under Sigrid Kaag. If the party does reach 27 seats, that means the best result ever for D66. Ipsos voter survey shows that D66 has won a large number of votes from left-wing competitors. 25 percent of the people who voted on GreenLeft last time chose D66. The same applies to 21 percent of the people who voted for the PvdA in 2017.

Links and CDA are shrinking

Thus, the left parties are the court supplier of the electoral gain of D66. The decimation of the classical left-wing parties is therefore also continuing. In 2006, the PvdA, SP and GroenLinks received 65 seats. There are only 25 of them left now.

Click here to view Sigrid Kaag’s reaction on the result of D66:

According to political reporter Arjen Noorlander, this is partly because other parties have also embraced left-wing themes, such as raising the minimum wage: โ€œAll parties have become a little left, which has ensured that voters no longer have to go to the Labour Party or SP for those positions.โ€

Besides the left-wing parties, the CDA is one of the most important losers. During the campaign, leader Wopke Hoekstra did not become a competitor for Mark Rutte for the premiership. The party lost 13 percent of its voters to the VVD and 7 percent to D66.

Check out Mark Rutte‘s reaction below:

However, government participation by the CDA is certainly not excluded. The current coalition of VVD, CDA, D66 and ChristenUnie could do so numerically. Indeed, those first three could drop the Christian Union and then have a majority of 77 seats, despite the loss of the CDA. However, this does not result in a majority in the First Chamber, so it is quite possible that an additional party in the cabinet will still be considered desirable.

Far right electorate stable

Also striking is the result on the far right flank of the political spectrum. Forum for Democracy lost a lot in the polls in recent months due to riots over anti-Semitism and racism, but quadruples the number of seats it reached four years ago. Thierry Baudet’s party goes from two to eight seats, judging by the exit polls. The party was the only one in the campaign as an opponent of the entire coronation policy of the Cabinet.

Also newcomer JA21, formed by former FVD members, wins. It appears to be entering the Chamber with three seats. Nevertheless, the total electorate for the extreme right-wing parties is fairly stable, says political scientist Tom van der Meer. The PVV loses a few seats and thus this side of the political spectrum โ€œagain has about one-sixth of the number of seatsโ€, says Van der Meer.

Joost Eerdmans of JA21 welcomes the entrance to the Chamber:

JA21 is not the only new party in the Chamber. The Europe-oriented Volt also enters the Chamber, with three seats as it looks today. The same applies to Bij1 of Sylvana Simons and the Boerburgerparty. They are expected to both have one seat.

If they keep it even when the votes are actually counted, this is another milestone in terms of political fragmentation. Seventeen parties would be represented in the House of Representatives.