Most likely, examining a minority cabinet will be the next step in the cabinet formation that has been long for months. After VVD and CDA‘s’ no ‘today against talks with the left block of GroenLinks and PvdA, this is one of the few serious options, says political reporter Ron Fresen. “But that won’t be easy either.”
Informer Mariëtte Hamer (PvdA) failed to fulfil the order of the House of Representatives to put a cabinet in the scaffolding with the support of a majority. Continuation of the current coalition is no longer possible now that D66 leader Kaag has excluded cooperation with the Christian Union.
Not just imaging
Left wanted to rule, but is now on the sidelines. Fresen: “PvdA and GroenLinks themselves say it failed, because VVD and CDA were afraid of imaging, the fear of being seen as too left. That certainly plays a role, but there were differences in content, even though hardly talked about it.”
“The VVD really wants different things with income differences than the PvdA. In terms of climate, they think really differently from GroenLinks,” says Fresen. “At the same time, Rutte knows that a new cabinet also needs to do a lot about climate, care and education. He would rather not want a left mark on that.”
With or without the CDA?
Now that a minority coalition comes into the picture, the question is which parties should participate in it. At least VVD and D66, the election winners. The VVD wants the CDA, because of its stability. “But D66 would rather not, because then the coalition on the right would become too conservative.”
Fresen believes that Kaag‘s understandable fear, although the CDA has shown itself progressively on certain topics over the past few years. “On migration, the CDA has made a difference in enabling the child’s pardon, and now the party is harassing Afghan refugees.”
A coalition of VVD and D66 is based on 58 seats, with the CDA becoming a maximum of 73. If Pieter Omtzigt takes his Chamber‘s seat again as a one-man group, that number will fall to 72. In any case, the Cabinet will have to seek support from opposition parties on every proposal.
Fresen expects it to take some time before a new ministerial crew is on the palace signs. “Meanwhile, the current cabinet is running on its last legs and can’t tackle what is needed. For example, the nitrogen crisis has not yet been resolved because there were major political disagreements about it. This can have major consequences if building permits will not be able to be issued again. The consequences of this slow cabinet formation are becoming increasingly visible.”