Parcel carriers and other logistics service providers for web shops have benefited most from the coronacrisis last year and the signals appear to be green for 2021. The opposite applies to aviation and public transport companies.
Passenger transport had a large halving in the number of passengers. Continued more work at home and fewer business travel is expected to take a long time to recover. The ING Economic Bureau concludes this in a report on the sector.
According to economists, parcel transport will benefit from the impetus given to the sector by the coronacrisis this year. The number of parcels delivered in the Netherlands exceeded 500 million. According to ING, the rising trend will continue next year. Now that retail companies such as Blokker, MediaMarkt and Ikea want to have more logistics management themselves, according to the bank, other companies in the road transport sector can also benefit from this.
Due to the new virus measures in force since last autumn, passenger transport 2021 is starting in a new valley. It is expected that the recovery will start in the course of the year, but it will take years before the sector exceeds the corona flap.
For example, for rail traffic, the NS assumes full recovery in 2025. In the case of freight transport and the underlying logistics, the volume reduction was expected to be limited to 3 percent.
ING believes that this will be partly compensated for by 2021 with 1.5 percent growth. For road hauliers where the order book remained filled, 2020 was even a relatively good year due to moderation in wages and the absence of expensive traffic jams. At international level, the relatively rapid recovery of trade flows is beneficial for logistics service providers.
Transport to the United Kingdom is still struggling with the reduction of stocks built up in anticipation of the final Brexit. This makes the beginning of the year slow. In the interior, less transport for construction and a pass at the place for retail, including supermarkets, will slow down recovery.
Growth in inland shipping is expected to be “lean.” This is due to the dismantling of coal transport, less fuel consumption and less building materials. Inland navigation also suffers from the quailing transport on the important Rhine, where shippers are looking for solutions for changing water levels.