Shortly after the start of the substantive negotiations on a new coalition, D66 is deteriorating firmly in the Peilingpointer. At the end of June, Sigrid Kaags party was still at 19 to 25 Chamber seats in this weighted average of Dutch seats. In mid-October, there are about five fewer: 14 to 20 seats.
Thats far behind the biggest party, the VVD, which runs at 34 to 38 seats. While D66 was clearly the countrys second party in the elections last March, it must now share that position with the PVV (17-20). It is also noted that the CDA remains unabated low with 5 to 9 seats, halving compared to the current number in the House of Representatives.
According to political scientist Tom Louwerse, the creator of the Peilingwiser, D66 has been on a loss for a long time, and continues that trend after D66s decision to negotiate with current coalition partners VVD, CDA and ChristenUnie. He refers to research by I&O Research, which shows that this is a disappointment for strategic voters who had hoped that profit for D66 would bring a left-progressive cabinet closer.
Not surprisingly, that same research by I&O Research shows, D66 loses voters mainly to Volt, GroenLinks and the PvdA. Volt comes in the Peilinghand at 5 to 9 seats, GroenLinks at 9 to 13 and the PvdA on 8 to 12 seats.
Popularity Kaag fell sharply
Kaags arduous formation and dramatically declining popularity are the main reasons for D66 voters to switch, says researcher Peter Kanne of I&O Research. “Voters now give Kaag the report rate 4.6 on average. By comparison, this was another 6.1 in March. Together with Geert Wilders of the PVV, she now receives the lowest rating from the leaders of the biggest parties.”
Political scientist Louwerse finds it further signatory that the strong fragmentation that the election results showed continue in the Peilingwiser. Besides Volt, another newcomer, BBB, has 4 to 8 seats higher than last March. JA21 comes out at the same number.
On the left side of the political spectrum, the SP remains roughly the same at 7 to 11 seats and the Party for the Animals at 5 to 9, and the Christian Union scores 5 to 7 seats and is larger than Forum for Democracy, which reaches 2 to 6.
In the smallest batches, the SGP remains stable at 2 to 4, Dink comes from 1 to 3 and its Bij1 and 50 Plus in the hazard zone with 0 to 2 and 0 to 1 seats respectively.