Peilingpointer: coalition parties in the minus, newcomers continue to rise

A few weeks before the presentation of the ministerial team of the Rutte IV cabinet, the three largest coalition parties are at a loss in the Peilingwijzer compared to the elections in March. This also applies to the VVD, which for a long time seemed to avoid the dissatisfaction of voters with the long-standing cabinet formation.

The party of outgoing Prime Minister Rutte is still the largest, but now comes at 28 to 34 Chamber seats, where there were still 34 to 38 in October.

D66 seems to be scratching something up in the last Peilinghand of the year. But Democrats still do not go further than 17 to 23 seats; about 4 less than the 24 they now have in the House. The Peilingwijzer is a weighted average of the seat polls of I&O Research, Ipsos/EenVandaag and Kantar.


The CDA still suffers the biggest losses, which had to take a step back to 15 seats in the elections in March and now has up to 6 to 10. The only coalition party that is not in the slightest is the Christian Union, which remains unchanged at 4 to 6 seats.

Political scientist Tom Louwerse, the creator of the Peilingwijzer, points out that the CDA already lost ground in the polls around the summer as a result of internal troubles and in particular the departure of Pieter Omtzigt. โ€œSince then, it has not been able to reclaim seats. That this classic driver party would be in exactly the same seat as the Party for the Animals at the end of 2021, few people would have believed that ten years ago.โ€

Parties benefiting from the reduced popularity of the coalition include newcomers to the House of Representatives such as JA21, BBB and Volt. All three of them rise to 5 to 9 seats. The PVV remains the third party of the country after the VVD and D66 with 16 to 20 seats.

โ€œCoalition agreement to leftโ€

Louwerse sees movement on the right side of the political spectrum, where part of the VVD voters, according to research by I&O Research, reproaches Rutte to move too much to the left. Ipsos/Eenvandaag also finds that dropping VVD voters find the coalition agreement to be left. According to the same Ipsos, these VVD ers deviate to JA21, the party of Joost Eerdmans, among others.

Louwerse sees 2021 as the year in which political fragmentation increased further, with the election of seventeen parties in the House of Representatives and the growth of several of them in the Peilingwijzer. โ€œJA21, BBB and Volt are now medium batches in the Peilingwijzer. They are at almost the same level as the PvdA and GroenLinks (7 to 11 seats) and the SP (6-9).โ€

According to Louwerse, a relatively new party like the Party for the Animals also manages to take steps forward each time. โ€œThe status of a party with a few seats has now ignited.โ€

Behind these parties, Forum for Democracy comes at 3 to 7 seats and the SGP at 2 to 4, just like Denk. Followed by Bij1 and 50Plus, who maintain at 0 to 2 seats.