In the first polling post after the March Parliamentary Elections, the VVD remains by far the largest party with between 35 and 41 seats and there is a loss to the CDA and Forum for Democracy.
The CDA, which lost 4 Room Seats in March and released at 15, loses another 5 to 8 in this weighted average of iPSOS/A Today and I&O Research polls. FvD still made a profit in March, but does not exceed 4 to 8 seats.
At a considerable distance from the VVD, D66 will follow 19 to 25 seats and the PVV 14 to 18.
Trust in Hoekstra decreased
Political scientist Tom Louwerse, creator of the Polling Guide, sees that the CDA has been in minus in several polls since the election. “But the last month, the party is dropped even further away. It makes sense to link that to Pieter Omtzigts departure. In the EenToday Opinion Panel, you saw the trust in Hoekstra among CDA voters decline sharply afterwards. CDA voters are mainly moving to the VVD in the poll of iPSOS/A today, which seems to suffer little from the discussion about Mark Ruttes governance style.”
According to Louwerse, Forum voters are equally negative about the unrest within their party, including the departure of three MPs. Research by I&O Research shows that. “Several voters indicate in that research that this is the reason for a move to the Boerburger Movement and the PVV,” Louwerse says.
Further growth newcomers
s more striking is that the newcomers to the Chamber are making all the profits. JA21 and Volt (both 3 to 7 seats) but also BBB (2 to 6) are rising compared to the election results. The same goes for a party that has been represented in the House for a long time: the Party for the Animals ranges from 2 to 6. Louwerse: “JA21 and BBB win on balance mainly from right-wing competitors such as Forum. While Volt is especially able to address non-voters according to iPSOS/A Today.”
50Plus reached one more seat in the elections (which the party has now lost to the Den Haan Group), but now does not go beyond 0 to 1, while the other parties are not or barely moving in relation to the March result. The three left-wing parties are the same: the SP and GroenLinks reach 6 to 10 seats; the PvdA at 7 to 11, and the Christian Union (4-6) and the SGP (2-4) have remained stable over the last three months.
At 1 remains stable at 0 to 2 seats, while Think scores 2 to 5 seats, again comparable to the last election.