Poll guide: D66 falls far back, VVD and CDA also lose

In the latest Poll Guide, the distance between the VVD as the largest party by far (29 to 33 Chamber Seats) and the competition has increased further. This is mainly due to the further loss of D66. Sigrid Kaags party falls to 13 to 19, a loss of about 9 seats compared to the current number in the House of Representatives.

The other larger parties (10 seats or more) are the PVV with 14 to 18 seats, GroenLinks with 10 to 14 and the PvdA with 8 to 12.

I&O Research asked voters why they should return their back to D66. Several issues play a role in this, including the integrity affair around D66-prominent Van Drimmelen, Kaags disappointing leadership and promises about a new governance culture that are not being kept. Where Kaag still received the report score 6.1 from the voter at the time of the elections, that is now only a 4.3. Prime Minister Rutte also scores an insufficient score: 5.1.

The difference is, says political scientist Tom Louwerse, the creator of the Poll Guide, that the average VVD voter probably has less high expectations of the party leader when it comes to, for example, the new governance culture. โ€œWhile Kaag insisted in the election campaign that she wanted change on that point. People will then see how that works in practice and some are apparently disappointed with the result.โ€ According to the research of I&O Research, D66 voters mainly depart to GroenLinks, but also to other progressive parties such as the PvdA and Volt.

GroenLinks, JA21 and BBB on solid profit

The other coalition parties are also losing compared to last years elections. The VVD stands at -3 and the CDA (7-11) reverses about six seats on it. The only exception within the coalition is the ChristenUnie, which now has five seats and has a profit of 1 seat.

Apart from GroenLinks, the big winners are still JA21 (7-11 seats, 6 more) and BBB (6-10, a win of 7). Caroline van der Plas of BBB, who now occupies only 1 seat on behalf of her party, is, according to the research of I&O Research, one of the few political leaders who manages to score a sufficient score with the electorate: a 6.2.

Smallest parties

The Party for the Animals (7 to 10 seats) and the SP (7 to 9) are almost the same size as BBB. Behind this are the ChristenUnie, Forum for Democracy (3 seats loss at 4 to 6), Volt (2-6), Think (3-5) and the SGP (2-4).

The two smallest parties, both of which manage to maintain themselves around a seat, are 50Plus and Bij1, both at 0 to 2 in the Poll Guide.