In the last Polling Guide of the year, the CDA wins about 4 Chamber seats compared to the polling last October. This profit coincides with the start of Wopke Hoekstra as leader of the Christian Democrats. Hoekstra took over the list attraction earlier this month from Hugo de Jonge, who, as minister, was too busy dealing with the coronacrisis.
The CDA is the third party in this Polling Guide with 16 to 20 seats. That is still less than half of the 39 to 45 seats rated by Prime Minister Rutte‘s VVD. And the CDA also lags behind the PVV, which remotely follows the VVD with 20 to 24 seats.
Forum for Democracy again loses seats. Meanwhile there are 2 to 6 seats left of the big profit FvD made in the polls at the beginning of last year. In the State elections, Forum became even the largest one more than 1.5 years ago. But a series of conflicts within Thierry Baudet’s party have led to that profit almost evaporating again.
Another party that has the wind is GroenLinks (11 to 13 seats). Political scientist Tom Louwerse, creator of the Polling Guide, notes that this party gradually lost about 5 seats in the corona year 2020. “In any case, you can see that the left-wing parties fail in this crisis to draw attention to their own themes such as climate. The SP is also in the minus with 8 to 12 seats. And the PvdA may win slightly to 12 to 16, but a real big left party is not there at the moment.”
Research by I&O Research also shows that only 12% of the current Green Left supporters are sure of their vote. No party scores so low, although the PvdA barely scores better with 22 percent convinced voters. “Left really needs to scratch behind the ears,” concludes researcher Peter Kanne of I&O Research. “The March elections threaten to become only a battle between the right, the right and the right: the VVD, the CDA and the PVV.”
Not yet a ‘Kaag effect’
The VVD is still the only government party to benefit from public support for coronation policy. D66 stays stuck in 10 to 14 seats and the ChristianUnion is stable at 5 to 7. “Sigrid Kaag‘s list attraction does not really provide an electoral impulse at D66,” concludes Sjoerd van Heck of Ipsos.
In the back of the field, the Party for the Animals FvD leaves behind it with 4 to 6 seats. The SGP comes from 2 to 4 and Think, like 50Plus, from 0 to 2. New parties like Code Oranje by Richard de Mos have not yet been included in the Polling Guide, because they don’t get seats at at at least two recorded polling agencies.