Polling guide: fragmentation unprecedented with fifteen parties who have a chance to seat

Exactly two weeks before the elections on 17 March, the VVD remains at solitary height in the Polling Guide, with 37 to 41 Chamber seats. Although the trend has declined slightly in recent months for Prime Minister Ruttes party, the loss is not significant compared to two weeks ago.

Far behind the VVD there is a broad civil society, in which the PVV (17 to 20 seats) and the CDA (17-19) are without prejudice to the largest.

New parties

New is Volt, a pan-European party active in all EU countries. The party of leader Laurens Dassen reaches 0 to 3 seats. The score for Volt is still uncertain, because the game has only been included in the Polling Guide for a short time.

To enter the Polling Guide, a party must score a seat at at least two of the three agencies included in this weighted average: I&O Research, Ipsos and Kantar. Earlier JA21 of Joost Eerdmans and Annabel Nanninga succeeded, who this time reaches 0 to 2 seats.

Is the record broken?
If

these newcomers were indeed able to reach the electoral threshold in mid-March, then for the first time in history there would be fifteen different parties in the House of Representatives. The highest number to date was achieved in 1933, 1971 and 1972, when fourteen parties succeeded.

Political scientist Tom Louwerse, the creator of the Polling Guide, points out that the fragmentation is extra large when you consider that there is only one big party left: the VVD. In the early 1970s there were three parties that managed to reach well above 20 seats: the PvdA, the KVP (not long after that merged into the CDA) and the VVD.

At present, there are at most medium-sized parties with the PVV and CDA, both of which are not able to reach the 20 seats limit. Behind these two there are a series of parties that do not outrun each other: D66 (13 to 15), the PvdA (12 to 14), GroenLinks (11-13) and the SP (9-11).

There

has been little change in this overall picture in recent months. According to Ipsos and I&O Research, it does not seem that the first major TV debates have changed that.

Light Recovery Forum

Among the smaller parties, the Forum for Democracy seems to be working on a slight recovery. After a low point in the polls around the 3 seats, FvD now rises higher to 3 to 5 seats. The ChristianUnie and the Party for the Animals are even bigger with 5 to 7. The SGP stands at 2 to 4 seats and 50Plus and Think on 1 to 3.