Polling guide: little movement, more newcomers knock at the door

Exactly one week before the parliamentary elections, there are few changes in the Polling Guide. The VVD has lost about 3 seats in the course of the last month and this time reaches 36 to 40. However, because the main pursuers PVV and CDA do not make any profit, Prime Minister Ruttes party is unchanged twice as big as the competition.

The CDA even loses ground and reaches 16 to 18 seats. As a result, according to political scientist Tom Louwerse, creator of the Polingwijzer, part of the profits that the CDA made after the start of Wopke Hoekstra as the leader. The PVV remains the same at 18 to 20 seats.

Maurice the Dog

The Polling Guide provides a weighted average of the political polls of three agencies: Kantar, I&O Research and Ipsos. Maurice de Hond does not want to participate with his Peil.nl. It is striking that the gap between VVD (32 seats) and the PVV (24 seats) is clearly smaller than the other pillars.

Louwerse: โ€œThere are always differences between desks, but usually they become smaller as the election date approaches. In this case, it has not yet happened. The differences may be due, among other things, to the fact that many voters say they are not yet sure of their case. According to Kantar, about one in seven doesnt know what to vote at all. But at IPSOS/Eentoday you can see that most people who do mention a party are not fully convinced at the moment and could still switch.โ€

Several left and progressive parts follow even more distance from the VVD. Coalition Party D66 reaches 14 to 16 seats. Thats about four seats less than the Democrats now have in the House of Representatives. According to an analysis by I&O Research, viewers of the RTL election debate saw Sigrid Kaag as the strongest debater, but so far this does not translate into a clear increase in the Polingwijzer.

50 Plus scribbles back

GroenLinks is also slightly in the minus compared to the elections of four years ago and does not go beyond 11 to 13 seats. The same size as the PvdA, which makes some profit after the major election defeat of 2017. That would be four less here than in the previous elections.

In the smaller parties, both the Christian Union and the Animals Party reach 5 to 7 seats, the Forum for Democracy from 3 to 5 and the SGP from 2 to 4.

50Plus scribbles back slightly to 1 to 3 seats. There are as many as for Think and for two newcomers: Volt and JA21.

At1, Code Oranje and BBB not a chance

Louwerse points out that there are other parties that have not yet been included in the Polling Guide – you have to get at least one seat at two of the three offices – but that seem to have some chance of getting a Chamber seat. For example, Bij1 of Sylvana Simons already has a seat at I&O Research. And IPSOS/Eentoday also sees interest among voters in Code Orange and the BoerburgerMovement (BBB).

If these parties actually succeed in getting the electoral divider, it means that even more parties will be elected than the fifteen of today in the Polling Guide. That would be a post-war record.