Polling guide: VVD remains by far the largest, but loses seats

Four weeks before the elections, the VVD in the Polingwijzer retains a large lead, but Mark Rutte‘s party has deteriorated over three Chamber seats in the past month.

The largest government party now reaches 38 to 42 seats in the Polling Guide, a weighted average of the political polls of three offices. Behind this, the picture remains unchanged: a wide field of parties with between 10 and 20 seats that reach at most half of the VVD score. These are the PVV (17-21 seats), the CDA (18-20), D66 (13-15), the PvdA (12-14), GroenLinks (11-13) and the SP (9-11).

Voter looks more substantive

For an explanation of the slight loss of VVD, political scientist Tom Louwerse, the creator of the Polling Guide, refers to analyses of Ipsos and I&O Research. Both agencies conclude from their research that the premierbonus of about ten seats for Rutte in coronatijd mainly stems from a voter’s need for leadership during a crisis.

But in the meantime the election day is getting closer and people are more concerned with the plans of parties. “Even if only by filling in voice aids like the Voice Guide,” says Peter Kanne of I&O Research. “Then some voters suddenly conclude: this VVD is really too right to me. Or not right enough.”

“ The result is that the extra seats will be loosened up again”, also sees Sjoerd van Heck of Ipsos. According to Van Heck and Kanne, the need for stable, clear leadership has not diminished. But they measure that confidence in the cabinet is starting to wear out somewhat. And the rating of Prime Minister Rutte has also fallen slowly.

There have been no changes in the other parties recently. The ChristianUnion comes from 5 to 7 seats, the Party for the Animals at 4 to 6, Forum for Democracy and the SGP are both 2 to 4 and Think 1 to 3. JA21, the new party of Joost Eerdmans and Annabel Nanninga, stands at 0 to 4 seats in the Polingwijzer.

Other parties do not get seats, although this happens in I&O Research with the European Volt Party, which won 2% of the votes in the European Parliament elections. In order to be included in the Polling Guide, a party must score at least one seat at two offices.