Update exitpoll Ipsos: VVD biggest party, D66 after big win second party

According to an updated exit poll by research firm Ipsos, commissioned by DeccEit, the VVD remains the largest party with 36 seats, 3 more than in the previous parliamentary elections. D66 becomes the second party in the poll with 27 seats, a gain of eight seats. This is the best election result ever for the party; in 1994 D66 received 24 seats.

According to the exit poll, the PVV, the largest opposition party until now, reaches 17 seats, a loss of 3 compared to four years ago. The CDA is followed by the CDA, which should incur a significant loss and leave 14 seats (-5). Only in 2012 party won fewer seats, with thirteen.

It follows a greater distance than the PvdA, which, with 9 seats, remains at the same level as after the enormous loss of four years ago. GroenLinks and the SP also lose a lot according to the poll. Both parties now have 14 seats but would have 8 seats left.

Forum for Democracy wins six seats according to the exitpoll and reaches 8. The Animals Party stands on 5 seats in the poll, as much as the party currently has.

Four debutants according to exitpoll

The Christian Union stands on 4 seats, which would mean a loss of one. The pan-European party Volt stands out. On her debut, the party is based on the poll with 3 seats in the House of Representatives.

Conservative JA21 is also new in the Chamber, with 3 seats. SGP would retain its 3 seats. Think would lose a seat and opens up to 2 seats. Other debutants are, according to the exit poll Bij1 and the BoerburgerMovement, both with 1 seat. 50Plus has one seat left, three less than they currently have.

The exit poll is subject to a margin of error of two seats. The number of seats of a party can thus be increased or reduced by two (see box). The exit poll is slightly less accurate because of the voting by post and the fact that it was possible to vote on several days than in previous elections.

Highest turnout since 1986?

According to the exit poll of Ipsos, there would be four new parties in parliament: Volt, JA21, Bij1 and the Boerburger Movement. This would bring the total to seventeen, the highest number since 1918.

The attendance rate was estimated to be 82.6 percent until 21:00, reports Ipsos. In the 2017 parliamentary elections, the turnout was 81.9 percent. If the turnout reaches 82.6%, it is the highest since the 1986 elections, when it was 85.8%.

Find out which coalition can obtain a majority via the tool below:

Ipsos asked people on Monday and Tuesday at 25 polling stations and today at 45 polling stations to which party they voted for. It is therefore a poll, but not with the question on which people will vote, but what they voted for. Visitors to the polling stations are a reflection of the electorate.