It remains unclear which party is going to be the biggest in Germany: the SPD is ahead, but the difference with the CDU/CSU is too small to really call out a winner. It is clear that the Christian Democrats have suffered a major defeat: they are dying for their worst outcome ever. More than two million voters have turned their backs on the party after Angela Merkel‘s departure, and this time they crossed the party with the Social Democrats and the Greens.
How is this huge loss to explain? The party will undoubtedly look for the causes themselves, but one of the reasons everyone saw coming from miles away. Leader Armin Laschet made notorious blunders by now, but it was clear much earlier: he simply appeals to too few people. Even within the CDU/CSU, few people were convinced of him.
The campaign was also a lot of criticism. It was contentless at first and relied too much on the assumption that Merkel voters would stay with the CDU/CSU anyway. When it became clear that the party was not going to make it through that attitude, the Christian Democrats did come up with plans and themes, but they did not convince enough people. The numerous warnings about the ‘red danger‘ that threatened if Scholz’s SPD became the biggest did not help either.
More than 1.3 million CDU/CSU voters have turned over to the SPD, which had a voice puller in the house with their Chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz. According to the ARD exit poll, they were mostly over 60s. Scholz has apparently succeeded in profiling itself as the candidate who stands for continuity and stability.
That appeals to people from different political backgrounds. Nearly half of SPD voters say they voted for another party without Scholz.
As long as it is not officially established who has made the most votes, it is also unclear who can take the lead in the formation. According to Scholz, that assignment lies with the SPD anyway, because his party won four years ago, and Laschets CDU/CSU lost a lot.
“The country must be able to recognise itself in the results. The voters want me to be Chancellor,” he said tonight. If the SPD remains ahead, Scholz will be the first to investigate a so-called traffic light coalition, consisting of SPD (red), FDP (yellow) and the Greens.
Laschet wants‘ Jamaica ‘
Laschet doesn‘t let it slide aside so easily. According to him, voters have informed them that they do not want a left-wing government, but one from the middle. In that he sees a role for himself. “The voter has instructed us to find as many matches as possible. Whoever becomes Chancellor must bring together different groups and I am willing to do so.”
Should Laschet become the largest, it’s no secret that he has a preference for a ‘Jamaica’ coalition of CDU/CSU, Greens and the FDP, which together form the colors of Jamaica‘s flag.
Key held by numbers three and four
In fact, the two possible coalition partners now have the most power: the Greens and the Liberal FDP. They are loved by both Scholz and Laschet. If they come out together, which is going to be quite difficult given the differences between the parties, they can ‘pick‘ a Chancellor.
They will demand a lot of influence, for example through the post of the Finance Minister. FDP leader Christian Lindner has already indicated that he has a lot of interest in this. Annalena Baerbock of the Greens has a preference for a coalition with the SPD, but the party doesn’t want to pin down on that.
In the ‘Elephant Round’ at the ARD, the talk show where all the list pullers review the results on election evenings, she said that whoever wants to make the most commitments in the climate sector has her favor: “For us, the most important thing is that Germany is climate-neutral in the next two decades. becomes. We have been chosen by many young people. This is not just about climate measures, but also the protection of an entire generation.”
It promises to be tough negotiations. In the meantime Angela Merkel stays on as demissionary Chancellor. If she stays that until December 17 th this year, she is officially the longest-serving German government leader ever. Record holder is now one of her predecessors, Helmut Kohl, who held office between 1982 and 1998.