The profit of D66 is mainly due to the votes of left-wing voters and non-voters, as evidenced by a representative sample by research firm Ipsos, commissioned by DeccEit. The party is projected to become the second party of the Netherlands with 24 seats, five more than in the previous elections.
A quarter of the D66 voters chose GroenLinks, PvdA, SP and Party voor de Dieren in the previous parliamentary elections in 2017. Sixteen percent of the D66 voters did not go to the polls in the previous election. Eight percent of the D66 voters come from the VVD.
D66 appears to be particularly popular among voters up to 34 years. The party has become the largest party among the 18 percent age group. Highly skilled voters also chose D66:21 percent of them voted for D66.
When asked who the voters prefer to see as the next Prime Minister, a third of the voters answer Mark Rutte (VVD) again. Sixteen percent of voters want Sigrid Kaag (D66) to become Prime Minister. Especially highly educated voters like Kaag in the Turentje, a quarter of them prefer to see her as prime minister. Among low-skilled voters, only 8% are in favour of Kaag.
The VVD will reach 36 seats, 3 more than in 2017. The votes mainly come from people who did not vote before and the CDA (7 percent).
Forum for Democracy has reached 8 seats, they only had 2 more. The voters mainly come from the PVV (25 percent).
At GroenLinks (from 14 to 7 seats) and the SP (from 14 to 9 seats) most voters have run away. In particular, the GreenLeft voter went to D66 (25 percent). The SP also lost mainly voters to D66 (12 percent). Another party that has lost many voters is 50Plus, which voters went mainly to the VVD (18 percent).
See below in four slides where the voters of FvD, SP, Groenlinks and CDA come from:
The most loyal voters are in the SGP, ChristianUnion and the CDA. Around 70% of the voters who voted for that party in the previous elections did so again. The CDA of Wopke Hoekstra went from 19 to 15 seats. Most voters who left (13 percent) went to the VVD.